http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61500/61500_2014_Q03.pdf
Here is what they say about Alberta
Alberta
Overview Economic growth in Alberta is expected to lead all provinces in Canada over the next two years. GDP is forecast to increase by 3.8 per cent in 2014 and 3.0 per cent in 2015. Higher oil and natural gas prices this year will help increase the value of energy exports and encourage investment in the energy sector. Consumer spending is also projected to rise, supported by strong population growth and rising wages. Labour market conditions in Alberta are projected to remain favourable as the economy generates employment growth of 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.2 per cent in 2015.
Alberta’s attraction of new migrants will help expand the labour force and keep the unemployment rate close to its ,current levels. The unemployment rate in Alberta is projected to average 4.6 per cent in 2014 and 4.5 per cent in 2015..After two consecutive years of record net migration, inflows of migrants to Alberta are projected to moderate as economic growth in other jurisdictions improve relative to Alberta. Net migration to Alberta will decline from the record of 102,465 people in 2013 to 79,000 in 2014 and to 64,000 in 2015.
In Detail,
Single Starts: Single-detached starts are forecast to increase from 18,431 units in 2013 to 19,100 in 2014 and then moderate to 18,800 units in ,2015. With active listings in the resale market below that of last year, some ,home buyers will look to the new home market to meet their needs, helping to lift starts this year. By 2015, the declining level of migration, combined with more listings in the resale market and rising new home inventory, are expected to moderate new production. Listings are expected to rise because housing prices in some markets have surpassed prices that last peaked in 2007/2008, thus providing an opportunity for homeowners to move up.
Multiple Starts: Multi-unit starts are projected to rise from 17,580 units in 2013 to 19,500 in 2014 and then ease to 18,000 units in 2015. The lift in multi-unit construction this year is primarily due to increased production in Calgary, where multi-unit starts are projected to attain a 33-year high. The multi-unit inventory has been trending lower over the past two years encouraging new production.
Resales:
MLS® sales are projected to increase to 69,900 in 2014 and to 71,900 in 2015. A large inflow of migrants over the past few years has generated momentum for housing demand. This will help lift sales over the forecast period, as will employment growth and income gains. While MLS® sales are projected to increase in 2015, growth will become more subdued as migration continues to ease.
Prices:
The average MLS® sales price is projected to increase to $396,800 in 2014 and then to $407,000 in 2015. A higher level of demand relative to supply will help lift resale prices in 2014. As 2014 progresses, new listings are expected to increase and continue rising into 2015.
Tags: Alberta housing market, CMHC Forecast, Housing, Housing market Canada, Microsoft Outlook