Absorption Rate – Calgary Real Estate
What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?
Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate. A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.
Absorption Rate (Months of Inventory – the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?
| Buyer’s Market | >4.0 | Drives prices down |
| Balanced Market | Between 2.4 to 4.0 | Prices typically remain stable |
| Seller’s Market | <2.4 | Drives prices up |
Current Absorption Rate
The absorption rate for December increased for Detached and Apartment sectors with a tiny increase in Attached Row homes. The only decrease is in the Semi-Detached.
At this point I am speculating however I believe that with the mortgage rule changes that went into affect Jan 1st we are going to see some buyers shifting from detached homes to Semi-Detached and from Semi-Detached to Row and from row to apartment condos.
| End of | Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | Change |
| Detached | 3.30 | 3.75 | 0.45 |
| Semi Detached | 4.64 | 4.56 | -0.09 |
| Attached – Row | 5.22 | 5.33 | 0.11 |
| Apartment | 6.99 | 8.89 | 1.90 |
| Total City | 4.28 | 4.83 | 0.55 |
Calgary Listing Inventory
In January our inventory increased in all Sectors. This is totally expected as some sellers take their home off the market for December and relist in January.
| Inventory | Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | Change |
| Detached | 2033 | 2185 | 152 |
| Semi Detached | 441 | 451 | 10 |
| Attached – Row | 658 | 698 | 40 |
| Apartment | 1182 | 1289 | 107 |
| Total City | 4314 | 4623 | 309 |
Calgary Sales:
Sales numbers are down a little from December and again this is a normal seasonal trend. What is important to note here is that when we compare with last year, January sales were 2% higher than in January 2017.
| Calgary Sales | Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | Change | % Change |
| Detached | 616 | 583 | -33 | -5.36% |
| Semi Detached | 95 | 99 | 4 | 4.21% |
| Attached – Row | 126 | 131 | 5 | 3.97% |
| Apartment | 169 | 145 | -24 | -14.20% |
| Total City | 1008 | 958 | -50 | -4.96% |
Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:
Prices in January decreased in every sector with larger decreases in the Attached Row and apartment condo sectors. This is consistent with higher absorption rates in those sectors.
| Sales Prices | Dec 2017 Benchmark Price | Jan 2018 Benchmark Price | Change |
| Detached | 499,600 | 499,400 | -200 |
| Semi Detached | 416,600 | 415,800 | -800 |
| Attached – Row | 299,500 | 296,700 | -2,800 |
| Apartment | 257,700 | 256,200 | -1,500 |
| Total City | 433,200 | 432,300 | -900 |
Sales Prices “Year to Date”
Same as monthly number
| Sales Prices | Jan 1, 2018 Benchmark Price | Jan 2018 Benchmark Price | Change
$ |
% Change |
| Detached | 499,600 | 499,400 | -200 | -0.04% |
| Semi Detached | 416,600 | 415,800 | -800 | -0.19% |
| Attached – Row | 299,500 | 296,700 | -2,800 | -0.93% |
| Apartment | 257,700 | 256,200 | -1,500 | -0.58% |
| Total City | 433,200 | 432,300 | -900 | -0.21% |
**Please note that these numbers include only Calgary homes and do change on a community basis and more so for towns. This report does not include rural properties. If you would like to find stats on your community just let me know. If you have any questions about this summary or about Real Estate in general, please feel free to contact us.
Annual Forecast from the Real Estate Board Economist.
In a nutshell her forecast for 2018 is that the market will stay essentially the same as it was in 2017, with similar inventory levels and sales levels. The Calgary Real Estate Board produced a full report showing not only what they predict but the reasons why. I found it a very interesting read. If you would like a full copy of the report just let us know and I can email to you.