Did the new mortgage rules affect the Calgary Real Estate Market? The answer is a resounding YES! Here is why.
December 2016 Absoption Rate Graph
Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate. A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.
Absorption Rate (Months of Inventory) (the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?
| Buyer’s Market | >4.0 | Drives prices down |
| Balanced Market | Between 2.4 to 4.0 | Prices typically remain stable |
| Seller’s Market | <2.4 | Drives prices up |
*** Absorption Rate***
The absorption rate for all categories increased this month. When the Mortgage rules changed in Oct we saw these numbers decrease as people jumped into the market before it was too late. The November decrease in sales results in a higher absorption rate.
| October 2016 | November 2016 | Change | |
| Detached | 2.49 | 2.99 | 0.50 |
| Semi Detached | 2.96 | 4.01 | 1.05 |
| Attached – Row | 4.21 | 5.42 | 1.21 |
| Apartment | 6.14 | 7.33 | 1.19 |
| Total City | 3.30 | 4.05 | 0.75 |
Calgary Listing Inventory
November saw a decrease in inventory levels in all categories. This is very normal for the month of November as people start to focus on Christmas and not Real Estate.
| Inventory | October 2016 | November 2016 | Change |
| Detached | 2565 | 2322 | -243 |
| Semi Detached | 486 | 453 | -33 |
| Attached – Row | 834 | 770 | -64 |
| Apartment | 1542 | 1430 | -112 |
| Total City | 5427 | 4975 | -452 |
Calgary Sales:
Sales in all categories decreased substantially this month. To put things in perspective let’s compare with last year.
2017 Sales from Oct to Nov decreased by 25.3%
2016 Sales from Oct to Nov decreased by 11.3%
This shows a 14% drop over our normal drop in November sales. Knowing that we has a small surge of sales in October tells me going forward the decrease from last year to this simply due to new mortgage rules should end up at about a 10% increase.
| Calgary Sales | October 2016 | November 2016 | Change | % Change |
| Detached | 1031 | 777 | -254 | -24.64% |
| Semi Detached | 164 | 113 | -51 | -31.10% |
| Attached – Row | 198 | 142 | -56 | -28.28% |
| Apartment | 251 | 195 | -56 | -22.31% |
| Total City | 1644 | 1227 | -417 | -25.36% |
Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:
All categories showed a decrease in prices this month with the exception of Attached row houses which increased slightly. Last month we saw a larger decrease in Attached Row houses so I believe it’s just balancing out. Moving forward how much prices are affected will depend on how much our inventory increases. Typically we will see a decline in inventory & sales in December and then they will start to increase in January.
| Sales Prices | October 2016 Benchmark Price | Nov 2016 Benchmark Price | Change |
| Detached | 502,200 | 498,300 | -3,900 |
| Semi Detached | 386,500 | 384,800 | -1,700 |
| Attached – Row | 308,100 | 309,400 | 1,300 |
| Apartment | 273,800 | 271,300 | -2,500 |
| Total City | 438,900 | 436,200 | -2,700 |
Sales Prices “Year to Date”
Year to date prices
| Sales Prices | Dec 31, 2015 Benchmark Price | Nov 2016 Benchmark Price | Change
$ |
% Change |
| Detached | 514100 | 498,300 | -15,800 | -3.07% |
| Semi Detached | 393100 | 384,800 | -8,300 | -2.11% |
| Attached – Row | 318500 | 309,400 | -9,100 | -2.86% |
| Apartment | 288,000 | 271,300 | -16,700 | -5.80% |
| Total City | 452800 | 436,200 | -16,600 | -3.67% |
Price Sensitivity
**Please note that these numbers do change on a community basis and more so for towns. This report does not include rural properties. If you would like to find stats on your community just let me know. If you have any questions about this summary or Real Estate questions please contact us.