What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?
First Explaining my report: Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market. This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate. A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.
Months of Inventory: If we did not list any more homes this is how many months it would take to deplete inventory.
Months of Inventory/Absorption Rate – the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?
| Buyer’s Market |
>4.0 |
Drives prices down |
| Balanced Market |
Between 2.4 to 4.0 |
Prices typically remain stable |
| Seller’s Market |
<2.4 |
Drives prices up |
Current Monthly Report
Current Report
Current Months of Inventory:
In December our months of inventory increased in all categories except Semi-Detached which decreased a little. Of note is that apartment condos increased 4.15 months – this is important as last month condos decreased by 1.63 leaving a net 2 month gain of 2.54 months which is still substantial. All housing categories are now in a “buyer’s market position”.
| End of |
Nov 2018 |
Dec 2018 |
Change |
| Detached |
5.16 |
5.23 |
0.07 |
| Semi Detached |
6.97 |
6.59 |
-0.39 |
| Attached – Row |
6.58 |
6.81 |
0.23 |
| Apartment |
5.51 |
9.66 |
4.15 |
| Total City |
5.57 |
6.18 |
0.60 |
Calgary Listing Inventory
In December, our inventory decreased in all sectors and overall, the highest decrease was in the Detached home sector followed by the Apartment Condo sector. This decrease is normal at this time of year as people often take their home off the market during the Holiday Season and many will relist in January.
| Inventory |
Nov 2018 |
Dec 2018 |
Change |
| Detached |
3507 |
2592 |
-915 |
| Semi Detached |
753 |
573 |
-180 |
| Attached – Row |
948 |
715 |
-233 |
| Apartment |
1323 |
1024 |
-299 |
| Total Calgary |
6531 |
4904 |
-1627 |
Calgary Sales:
In December we saw a decrease in sales in all Categories. Again, this is very normal as people are busy during the holidays and Real Estate moves often get put off until people are settled in after the holidays. I speculate that in January these numbers will start to increase.
| Calgary Sales |
Nov 2018 |
Dec 2018 |
Change |
% Change |
| Detached |
680 |
496 |
-184 |
-27.06% |
| Semi Detached |
108 |
87 |
-21 |
-19.44% |
| Attached – Row |
144 |
105 |
-39 |
-27.08% |
| Apartment |
240 |
106 |
-134 |
-55.83% |
| Total City |
1172 |
794 |
-378 |
-32.25% |
***Sales Compared to last year***
As you can see from the chart below comparing sales to last year’s sales there have been some substantial changes. In the first half of the year we were trending up and in the last 6 months we are trending down rather quickly. My belief is that this is due to the Economic conditions in Calgary and declining consumer confidence.
| Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
June |
July |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| 102% |
82% |
72% |
80% |
82% |
89% |
95% |
93% |
85.9% |
89.9% |
83.0 |
78.6 |
Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:
December saw prices decrease in all sectors with the largest decrease being in the Detached home sector. This is expected with the high number of months of inventory on the market. Unless something changes we can expect to see this trend for a few more months.
| Sales Prices |
Nov 2018 Benchmark Price |
Dec 2018 Benchmark Price |
Change |
| Detached |
486,000 |
481,400 |
-4,600 |
| Semi Detached |
400,700 |
397,500 |
-3,200 |
| Attached – Row |
292,900 |
288,400 |
-4,500 |
| Apartment |
252,800 |
251,500 |
-1,300 |
| Total City |
422,600 |
418,500 |
-4,100 |
Sales Prices “Year to Date”
Well the numbers are finally in for 2018 with all categories showing a loss in the Benchmark price.
| Sales Prices |
Jan 1, 2018 Benchmark Price |
Dec 2018 Benchmark Price |
Change
$ |
% Change |
| Detached |
498,700 |
481,400 |
-17,300 |
-3.47% |
| Semi Detached |
412,500 |
397,500 |
-15,000 |
-3.64% |
| Attached – Row |
296,700 |
288,400 |
-8,300 |
-2.80% |
| Apartment |
256,400 |
251,500 |
-4,900 |
-1.91% |
| Total City |
432,400 |
418,500 |
-13,900 |
-3.21% |
**Please note that these numbers include only Calgary and change on a community basis and more so for towns. This report does not include rural properties and does not take into account differences in different price ranges. If you would like to find stats on your community contact us. If you have any questions about this summary or about Real Estate in general, please feel free to contact us.
