Archive for the ‘CMHC’ Category

Federal Budget Programs for first time home buyers – March 2019

Wednesday, March 20th, 2019

Thanks to our Mortgage Broker Bob Alexander for summarizing the announcements made in the Federal Government Budget.  From what I understand this is the high level as all the fine details have yet to come out.  If the Liberals are re-elected in October these are the changes you may see.  In my humble opinion they are not giving anything big – just lending you some money towards your mortgage.

Here is Bob”s Summary

The Federal Government announced several incentives in the new 2019 budget that affect the Canadian housing market. These changes should help with first time home buyers as summarized below:
This announcement of a new CMHC First-Time Home Buyers Incentive Plan represents a shared equity mortgage program that would give eligible first-time home buyers the ability to lower their borrowing costs by sharing the cost of buying a home with CMHC.

The incentive would provide funding (equity sharing) of up to five percent of the purchase price of an existing home, or 10 percent of a newly constructed home. No ongoing monthly payments are required. The buyer would repay the incentive when they sell their home.

For example, if a borrower purchases a $400,000 home with five per cent down and a five per cent CMHC shared equity mortgage ($20,000), the size of the borrower’s insured mortgage would be reduced from $380,000 to $360,000, helping to lower the borrower’s monthly mortgage payment. This would make it easier for Canadians to buy homes they can afford.

The program limits eligibility to households earning a maximum of $120,000 annually, and lets them borrow no more than four times their annual household income. This limits a home purchase to roughly $505,000. This Incentive Plan will be discussed more fully in the next few weeks, but it is not expected to begin until the fall of 2019.

Also of note is an increase in the eligible RRSP withdrawal amount through the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP). Previously $25,000, this has been increased to a maximum to $35,000.

The budget included a lengthy defense of the current stress tests but does suggest that adjustments may be made in future.

I hope this commentary helps explain these new incentives and if not, please feel free to contact me!
Article courtesy of:
Your Mortgage Doctor
Bob Alexander, B.Comm, CMA, AMP

Phone: 403-875-5270
Email: bob@mortgagedoctors.ca
www.mortgagedoctors.ca

Housing Market Outlook, Fall of 2017 Produced by Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC)

Friday, October 27th, 2017

Every quarter CMHC provides a housing outlook report.  In the report you will find

  • New home market
  •  Resale Market
  • Rental Market
  • Economic Trends

The report show stats from the past and future predictions, In my opinion it is a great report.

To see full report click here

Fall 2016 edition of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook – Calgary

Friday, October 28th, 2016

Every quarter CMHC  produces their Housing Market Outlook for all of Canada and for Major cities like Calgary.  It is interesting as it shows not only the state of the market but it contains predictions for the future and an explanation of Why?

Here is a link to the full report for Calgary

The Fall 2016 edition of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook – Calgary is now available and can be accessed by clicking on the link below.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2016_B02.pdf

Highlight of the report include

  • Total housing starts forecast to remain relatively low in 2016 and 2017, before improving in 2018. „
  • Significant changes in MLS® sales are not expected over the forecast period. „
  • The purpose-built apartment vacancy rate is expected to stay above historical averages.

Thanks to CMHC for giving u this valuable information.

 

Housing Market Outlook Calgary

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Every quarter Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation  Issues a Calgary Housing Report.  This reports on new build, inventory, MLS Sales, Rental Vacancies and the why behind their predictions.

Date Released: Spring 2016

Below are some highlights on the Existing Home market.

To view the entire report and find out how you can get your’s delivered to your inbox click here.

Existing home market: Average house prices forecast to decline in 2016 Following a 29 per cent decline in 2015 to 23,994 units, MLS® residential sales in Calgary are forecast to move lower for the second consecutive year in 2016. Job losses, especially among full-time positions, and reduced consumer sentiment will keep many buyers on the sidelines. In addition, income growth will also be muted and migration to the region will decrease. While mortgage rates are expected to remain low throughout the forecast period, weakness in the other primary drivers of housing demand will keep sales from rising. Sales in 2016 are forecast to range between 19,800 and 22,200 transactions. Oil prices in 2017 are expected to stabilize at higher levels compared to the year before, leading to modest improvements in economic activity and consumer confidence. MLS® residential sales in 2017 are forecast to range between 20,200 and 22,600 units. Following a pronounced increase of over 40 per cent in 2015, the rise in active listings has slowed down in 2016. In the first quarter, active listing were at elevated levels, and up four per cent from the previous year. The increase in supply has provided prospective buyers more selection compared to a year earlier. Not only are sellers under more pressure to accept lower prices, but new home builders are also facing more competition from the existing home market. Although trending up in the last several months, active listings have started to plateau and will move lower later in 2016 and into 2017. New listings in 2016 are not expected to change significantly compared to a year earlier. After three months, new listings were down three per cent from the corresponding period in 2015. As housing demand has moderated and prices have declined, homeowners are not rushing to list their houses for sale. In addition, newly listed homes will also be competing with 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 thousands Inner range Source: CREA, (F): CMHC Forecast Figure 2 Calgary CMA, MLS® Sales (000s) Housing Market Outlook – Calgary CMA – Date Released – Spring 2016 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 4 an already well-supplied resale market where homes on average are taking longer to sell. New listings in Calgary are not expected to rise substantially until home prices post stronger gains. The average MLS® residential price in 2016 is forecast to post another decline and range between $444,500 and $449,500, compared to $453,814 in 2015. The sales-to-active listings ratio declined to 21 per cent in the first quarter and is expected to remain relatively low for most of 2016. The increase in supply and lower demand has given buyers an edge over home sellers, putting downward pressure on prices. CMHC’s Housing Market Assessment2 framework had also detected moderate evidence of overvaluation as house prices have not been fully supported by economic and demographic fundamentals. In 2017, house prices in the resale market are anticipated to gradually stabilize as the market shifts to more balanced levels. Improvements in economic conditions and housing demand combined with less supply will help support home prices. The MLS® average residential price in 2017 is forecast to range from $450,400 to $455,600.

October Market Snapshot

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015

Despite all the doom and gloom in the media the Calgary Real Estate Market has not crashed and in certain sectors is actually fairing quite well considering the circumstances.

Stay ahead of the curve by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market. This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and the effect on the price of Calgary Real Estate.  A simple way to keep up to date and ahead of most!

Below are the details along with a few comments, all numbers were taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors.

Calgary Listing Inventory

In October our inventory declined for detached homes and increased in the attached homes and apartments sectors.

 Inventory  Sept  2015 Oct  2015 Change
Detached 3012 2922 -90
Attached 1232 1290 +58
Apartment 1282 1366 +84
Total City of Calgary 5526 5578 +52

Calgary Sales:

Sales for attached homes increased slightly this month while detached homes and apartment sales decreased.   The largest decrease is in the apartment sector.  Looking at the total sales we are down by only 27 sales from last month.  We are down substantially from 2014  (2014 was a huge year) and are down from the long term average.

In my opinion seasonal adjustments are a small part of this and it is a bigger reflection of a weakened economy and uncertainty.

Sales Sept  2015 Oct  2015 Change % Change
Detached 906 872 -34 -3.75%
Attached 283 312 +29 +3.2%
Apartment 259 237 -22 -8.5%
Total City of Calgary 1448 1421 -27 -1.9

Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:  

Prices for all categories decreased this month.  The overall price decrease from September was  .66%. Looking at today’s absorption rate I predict that detached and attached homes will continue with small decreases while the apartment sector will show higher decreases.  Why you might ask am I predicting a decrease for detached homes while we are still in a balanced market – my answer is simply the consumer confidence level out there.

  Sales Prices Sept  2015

Benchmark Price 

Oct  2015

Benchmark Price

Change
Detached 517,200 513,800 -3,400
Attached 357,000 354,100 -2,900
Apartment 290,600 288,300 -2,300
Total City of Calgary 456,100 453,100 -3,000

Sales Prices “Year to Date”   

Year to date prices –  The numbers here speak for themselves. As you can see the largest decrease is in the apartment sector. Overall I am surprised at how well Real Estate has held up so far with all the uncertainty.

Sales Prices Dec 31, 2014   Benchmark Price  Oct  2015

Benchmark Price

Change

$

% Change
Detached 510,900 513,800 +2,900 +.57%
Attached 357,000 354,100 -3,000 -.84%
Apartment 300,300 288,300 -12,000 -4.0%
Total City of Calgary 459,000 453,100 -5,900 -1.28%

Absorption Rate (Months of Inventory)   (the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?

Buyer’s Market >4.0 Drives prices down
Balanced Market Between 2.8 to 4.0 Prices typically remain stable
Seller’s Market <2.8 Drives prices up

*** Absorption Rate:   

In October all categories increased with apartment condos taking the biggest jump. This will have an impact on prices in the coming months.

Absorption Rate   Sept  2015 Oct  2015 Change
Detached 3.32 3.35 +.03
Attached 4.35 4.13 -.22
Apartment 4.95 5.76 +.81
Total City of Calgary 3.82 3.93 +.11

Calgary’s Housing Market Outlook Fall 2015

Wednesday, October 28th, 2015

CMHC has released this fall’s housing market outlook and there’s some great information in there! Some highlights include:

  • Single detached housing starts are forcast to remain below historical averages through to 2017
  • Multi-family starts are set to decline from the record high in 2014
  • MLS residential sales will decline in 2015 before gradually increasing in 2016 and 2017
  • Emplyment growth to slow down in 2015 and 2016 but improve in 2017

For an indepth look at what CMHC is projecting for the coming year take a look at the whole report here.

The Third Quarter 2014 edition of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook

Friday, August 15th, 2014
The Third Quarter 2014 edition of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook – Canada is now available and can be accessed by clicking on the link below. For full report click
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61500/61500_2014_Q03.pdf

Here is what they say about Alberta

Alberta

Overview Economic growth in Alberta is expected to lead all provinces in Canada over the next two years. GDP is forecast to increase by 3.8 per cent in 2014 and 3.0 per cent in 2015. Higher oil and natural gas prices this year will help increase the value of energy exports and encourage investment in the energy sector. Consumer spending is also projected to rise, supported by strong population growth and rising wages. Labour market conditions in Alberta are projected to remain favourable as the economy generates employment growth of 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.2 per cent in 2015.

Alberta’s attraction of new migrants will help expand the labour force and keep the unemployment rate close to its ,current levels. The unemployment rate in Alberta is projected to average 4.6 per cent in 2014 and 4.5 per cent in 2015..After two consecutive years of record net migration, inflows of migrants to Alberta are projected to moderate as economic growth in other jurisdictions improve relative to Alberta. Net migration to Alberta will decline from the record of 102,465 people in 2013 to 79,000 in 2014 and to 64,000 in 2015.

In Detail,

Single Starts: Single-detached starts are forecast to increase from 18,431 units in 2013 to 19,100 in 2014 and then moderate to 18,800 units in ,2015. With active listings in the resale market below that of last year, some ,home buyers will look to the new home market to meet their needs, helping to lift starts this year. By 2015, the declining level of migration, combined with more listings in the resale market and rising new home inventory, are expected to moderate new production. Listings are expected to rise because housing prices in some markets have surpassed prices that last peaked in 2007/2008, thus providing an opportunity for homeowners to move up.

Multiple Starts: Multi-unit starts are projected to rise from 17,580 units in 2013 to 19,500 in 2014 and then ease to 18,000 units in 2015. The lift in multi-unit construction this year is primarily due to increased production in Calgary, where multi-unit starts are projected to attain a 33-year high. The multi-unit inventory has been trending lower over the past two years encouraging new production.

Resales:

MLS® sales are projected to increase to 69,900 in 2014 and to 71,900 in 2015. A large inflow of migrants over the past few years has generated momentum for housing demand. This will help lift sales over the forecast period, as will employment growth and income gains. While MLS® sales are projected to increase in 2015, growth will become more subdued as migration continues to ease.

Prices:

The average MLS® sales price is projected to increase to $396,800 in 2014 and then to $407,000 in 2015. A higher level of demand relative to supply will help lift resale prices in 2014. As 2014 progresses, new listings are expected to increase and continue rising into 2015.

CMHC Housing Market Outlook – Calgary

Friday, August 16th, 2013

This Outlook report for Calgary is published semi-annually and offers forecasts and analyses of trends in the new, resale and rental housing markets. For the new home market, housing starts and price changes are examined in detail, while the resale section presents sales activity, average prices, and listings. Analysis of the rental market focuses on vacancy rates, average rents and related forecasts. An overview and forecast of key economic indicators is also detailed, along with other factors affecting the local economy and housing market.  Check out their report at http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2013_B01.pdf?fr=1376766245407 or visit their website at http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Spring 2013 edition of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook – Calgary

Thursday, July 4th, 2013

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation produces some great information on what”s happening with the housing market in Calgary.  Please keep in mind this australia online casinos report was produced prior to the Calgary Flood 2013.  The Spring 2013 edition of CMHC”s Housing Market Outlook – Calgary is now available and can be accessed by clicking on the link below.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2013_B01.pdf

CMHC’s Calgary Housing Market Outlook

Monday, November 5th, 2012

The Fall 2012 edition of CMHC”s Housing Market Outlook – Calgary is now available and can be accessed by clicking on the link below.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2012_B02.pdf

This report show some great info on the Calgary Housing Market.  If you have any questions about Calgary Real Estate feel free to contact me.