Posts Tagged ‘Calgary Housing market Snapshot’

October 1, 2023: Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot

Thursday, October 5th, 2023

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

 Following is a graph that shows the months of inventory for each housing sector. Looking at a one-year trendline gives you an indication of where things are really heading.

Calgary Real Estate Board Stats

Gord’s commentary for the month (just my opinion).

September 2023 Highlights

The Calgary Market is maintaining its strength, with no substantial change.

  • September sales recorded another high at 2441 Sales.
  • New listings increased over August preventing our inventory from declining more.
  • Inventory is 24% lower than last year.
  • Seller’s market continues….

 

Calgary Listing Inventory

Our listing inventory remains very low with a total of 3369 listings but did show a slight increase of 115 listings.  Its important to note that new listings are up, but they are being absorbed so the inventory is not increasing rapidly. Typically, in September we would see inventory rising but that is just not happening.

 

Calgary Sales:

Sales in September were down by 288 or 10.55% from August.  The sectors that saw the largest decreases were Apartment Condos at -170 and Attached Row houses at -60.  As I have said many times what is keeping our sales down is our Inventory if there were more listings we would certainly sell more.

 

 

 

Sales Compared to 2022: 

It is also important to look at sales compared to the Previous year. Sales for September were up by 28.9% from last year.  I attribute this to an increase in listings.  The demand is certainly still large so the more we can list the more we sell.

 

  Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
2022 2004 3305 4091 3401 3071 2837
2023 1199 1740 2432 2690 3120 3146
Change -805 -1565 -1659 -711 +57 +309
% Change -40.1% -47.4% -40.55% -20.9% +1.9% +10.9%

 

  July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2022 2249 2133 1893      
2023 2647 2729 2441      
Change +398 +596 +548      
% Change +17.7% 27.9% +28.9%      

 

Calgary Real Estate Benchmark Sales Prices:

Surprise, the overall benchmark price remained almost flat this month showing a decrease of $400.  In my opinion we should have seen a rise since we are still in a seller’s market position.  I Believe this may have been just a little bounce back from last month.

Calgary Real Estate Benchmark Year to Date Sales Price:  See chart below.

For all of Calgary we have so far seen an increase in all sectors of 9.93% or $51,500.

The lowest dollar increases so far has been apartment condos at $38,000 and the highest is Detached homes at $76,500.  It is important to note that this is a Calgary number and each community within Calgary will be different – some higher and some lower.

 

Current Months of Inventory (Absorption Rate): 

Months of Inventory increased a little in all sectors.  The largest increase is in apartment condos (.35) and Semi-Detached (.29) while detached homes and Row Homes stayed flat.

My Prediction for what is ahead:  Based on what is driving demand (immigration) and I do not see that changing any time soon, I predict sales are going to remain strong and prices are going to continue to trend upwards although based on trends I see us slowly climbing out of the seller’s market, but it will likely take months.

 

**Below is a summary of numbers in chart form. All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards monthly Stats package.

*All numbers vary by community and price ranges, if you would like stats specifically for your neighbourhood, please contact us.

Months of Inventory

 

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Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot July 1, 2019

Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

Lets look at the number of months of Inventory AKA Absorption Rate

 

 

 Current Report: July 1, 2019

 A slightly new format this month and moving forward due to technology challenges with reading the graphs on a cell phone.  This should help.  New format shows all numbers first and then my comments.

 

Current Months of Inventory: 

Through June our Months of Inventory increased in all categories except Attached Row houses.   The only Substantial increase is in Apartment Condos which increased by 1.58, Attached Row decreased by .38

Interesting to note that Detached Homes and Semi- Detached homes are trending in a Balanced Market.  Attached Row Houses is in a buyer’s Market and Apartment Condos are still very much in a buyer’s market.

Calgary Listing Inventory

In June, our inventory rose in all Detached homes and Apartment Condos and we saw decreases in Semi Detached and Attached Row Houses.  Overall increase was just 74 listings so not substantial.

 Calgary Sales:

Sales for June decreased in all categories except Attached Row which increased only marginally.

The largest decrease was in the Apartment condo sector which decreased by 16.83%.  Overall sales decreased by 7.34% for the month.

 Sales Compared to 2018: 

In May we were 11.4% above last May’s sales.  In June we are 6.1% down from last year so things seem to be settling out a bit.

 Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:

June saw price increases in Detached and Semi Detached and we saw decreases in Attached Row houses and Apartment Condos.  Note the price increases in the detached sector is being driven by homes under $500,000.  Which are moving very quickly.

Months of Inventory/Absorption Rate – What does this mean you might ask? It’s the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month).

  **Please note that these numbers include only Calgary and do change on a community basis, and more so for towns.  This report does not include rural properties and does not consider differences in different price ranges.  If you would like to find stats on your community just let me know.  If you have any questions about this summary or about Real Estate in general, please feel free to contact us.

 

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Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot: June 1, 2019

Tuesday, June 4th, 2019

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

 

If you are new to our Monthly Snapshot please scroll to bottom for explanation.

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                                                  Current Report: June 1, 2019

 

Current Months of Inventory: 

More good news for the Real Estate Market this month.  All housing sectors decreased in the months of inventory with the highest decrease being in the Apartment Condo sector and a close 2nd for Semi- Detached. Of Special note both Detached Homes and Semi-Detached homes moved into balanced market territory.

 

End of April 2019 May 2019 Change
Detached 3.97 3.32 -0.65
Semi Detached 4.63 3.91 -0.72
Attached – Row 5.29 4.98 -0.31
Apartment 6.16 5.25 -0.91
Total City 4.57 3.89 -0.68

 

 Calgary Listing Inventory

In May, our inventory rose in all categories which is very normal for this time of year.

 

Inventory (End of) April 2019 May 2019 Change
Detached 3691 3921 230
Semi Detached 773 793 20
Attached – Row 1053 1100 47
Apartment 1546 1653 107
Total City 7063 7467 404

 

 Calgary Sales:

Sales for May increased in all sectors compared to April.   Sales increasing is again an expected change as we move into the spring market. The good news is that sales increases are outpacing listing inventory moving the entire market closer to balanced.

 

Calgary Sales  April 2019 May 2019 Change % Change
Detached 930 1182 252 27.10%
Semi Detached 167 203 36 21.56%
Attached – Row 199 221 22 11.06%
Apartment 251 315 64 25.50%
Total City 1547 1921 374 24.18%

 

 

***Sales Compared to last year***

In April our sales showed an increase over last April which is the first time in a few years that this has happened.  Hoping the trend continues.

 

  Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2018 102% 82% 72% 80% 82% 89% 95% 93% 85.9% 89.9% 83.0 78.6
2019 83.8% 89.6% 97.1% 102.2% 111.4

 

 Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:

May saw price increases in all sectors except Apartment Condos.  Being that apartment condos have the highest months of inventory of all sectors, this is an expected result.

  Sales Prices Apr 2018     Benchmark Price  May 2019   Benchmark Price Change
Detached 478,700 487,900 9,200
Semi Detached 395,300 397,700 2,400
Attached – Row 284,900 286,500 1,600
Apartment 250,400 248,200 -2,200
Total City 415,900 424,600 8,700

 

 

Sales Prices “Year to Date”  

This is a positive month as the Detached sector moved into positive territory for the year, Semi-detached are almost break even while apartment Condos and Row Houses still have a ways to go.

Sales Prices Jan 2019    Benchmark Price  May 31, 2019    Benchmark Price Change

$

% Change
Detached 481,400 487,900 6,500 1.35%
Semi Detached 397,500 397,700 200 0.05%
Attached – Row 288,400 286,500 -1,900 -0.66%
Apartment 251,500 248,200 -3,300 -1.31%
Total City 418,500 424,600 6,100 1.46%

 

  

Explanation of our Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot.

Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market. This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate.  A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.

Months of Inventory:  If we did not list any more homes this is how many months it would take to deplete inventory.

Months of Inventory/Absorption Rate – the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?

Buyer’s Market >4.0 Drives prices down
Balanced Market Between 2.4 to 4.0 Prices typically remain stable
Seller’s Market <2.4 Drives prices up

 

 **Please note that these numbers include only Calgary and do change on a community basis, and more so for towns.  This report does not include rural properties and does not consider differences in different price ranges.  If you would like to find stats on your community just let me know.  If you have any questions about this summary or about Real Estate in general, please feel free to contact us.

 

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Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot Sept 1, 2018

Tuesday, September 4th, 2018
What is really Happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

What is really Happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

 

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market. This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate.  A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.

Months of Inventory/Absorption Rate – the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?

Buyer’s Market >4.0 Drives prices down
Balanced Market Between 2.4 to 4.0 Prices typically remain stable
Seller’s Market <2.4 Drives prices up

 

Current Months of Inventory:  If we did not list any more homes this is how many months it would take to deplete inventory.

In August the months of inventory remained fairly flat with the exception of Attached-Row homes which decreased by .56  I see this as a correction as last month this number went up by over 1.0

 

End of July 2018    Aug 2018    Change
Detached 4.72 4.78 0.06
Semi Detached 6.07 6.45 0.37
Attached – Row 6.78 6.22 -0.56
Apartment 7.01 6.86 -0.16
Total City 5.46 5.45 -0.01

 

 Calgary Listing Inventory

In August, our inventory decreased in all sectors and overall, the highest decrease was in the Detached home sector. This is totally normal at this time of year and we should expect this trend to continue for the rest of the year.

 

Inventory July 2018    Aug 2018    Change
 Detached 4578 4433 -145
Semi Detached 911 909 -2
Attached – Row 1187 1113 -74
Apartment 1774 1666 -108
Total Calgary 8450 8121 -329

 

Calgary Sales:

Sales were down in all categories (except Attached-Row which increased by 4) , This is normal for August as we are moving out of our busy season and people are focused on vacations and outdoor activities and now back to school.

 

Calgary Sales  July 2018    Aug 2018    Change % Change
Detached 969 927 -42 -4.33%
Semi Detached 150 141 -9 -6.00%
Attached – Row 175 179 4 2.29%
Apartment 253 243 -10 -3.95%
Total City 1547 1490 -57 -3.68%

 

Sales Compared to last year:  Thought this is a number that deserves a look as the trend is changing. Chart shows this year’s sales as a percentage of last years so yes sales are down but they are down less than at the beginning of the year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov  Dec
102% 82% 72% 80% 82% 89% 95% 93% ‘

 

 Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:

As you can see prices in all sectors decreased in August.  As we are now in a buyer’s market we should expect prices to decline slightly which is what happened.

 

  Sales Prices July 2018   Benchmark Price   Aug 2018   Benchmark Price Change
Detached 501,300 497,000 -4,300
Semi Detached 416,200 411,300 -4,900
Attached – Row 300,300 296,700 -3,600
Apartment 259,700 258,100 -1,600
Total City 435,200 432,000 -3,200

  

Sales Prices “Year to Date”  

Same as monthly number

Sales Prices Jan 1, 2018    Benchmark Price  Aug 2018   Benchmark Price Change

$

% Change
Detached 499,600 497,000 -2,600 -0.52%
Semi Detached 416,600 411,300 -5,300 -1.27%
Attached – Row 299,500 296,700 -2,800 -0.93%
Apartment 257,700 258,100 400 0.16%
Total City 433,200 432,000 -1,200 -0.28%

  

**Please note that these numbers include only Calgary homes and do change on a community basis and more so for towns.  This report does not include rural properties.  If you would like to find stats on your community just let me know.  If you have any questions about this summary or about Real Estate in general, please feel free to contact us.

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Calgary Real Estate Market Snapshot – Nov. 1, 2017

Thursday, November 2nd, 2017

Aborsption Rate Trend – Supply Vs Demand 

What is really happening in the Calgary Real Estate Market?

Stay ahead of everyone else by following our Monthly Market Snapshot of the Calgary Real Estate Market This shows what’s really happening! The market is driven by supply and demand so here we show the inventory (supply) and sales (demand) and most importantly the relationship between the two and how it affects the price of Calgary Real Estate.  A simple way to keep up to date with how the market is trending and to stay ahead of most! All numbers are taken from the Calgary Real Estate Boards Stats package for Realtors. I have also included some general comments which are simply my opinion.

Absorption Rate’s Explained  (Months of Inventory)   (the inventory divided by the number of sales in the last month). What does this mean you might ask?

Buyer’s Market >4.0 Drives prices down
Balanced Market Between 2.4 to 4.0 Prices typically remain stable
Seller’s Market <2.4 Drives prices up

 

Current Absorption Rate

The Absorption rate for October stayed almost flat with the exception of Apartment Condos which decreased by 1.38 which is the first sizable decrease we have seen in this sector in a while.  It’s important to note that last month went up by 1.29 so part of this can be just timing of listing coming on and off the market.

  Sept  2017  Oct  2017  Change
Detached 3.79 3.57 -0.21
Semi Detached 4.31 4.27 -0.04
Attached – Row 5.25 5.28 0.03
Apartment 8.42 7.03 -1.38
Total City 4.69 4.41 -0.29

 

Calgary Listing Inventory

In October all categories stayed flat except for detached homes which saw an decrease of 233 listings and apartment condos which decreased by 129 listings.

Inventory Sept  2017  Oct  2017  Change
Detached 3479 3246 -233
Semi Detached 621 611 -10
Attached – Row 993 967 -26
Apartment 1768 1639 -129
Total City 6861 6463 -398

 

Calgary Sales:

Sales for October were almost identical to September. Last year sales from Sept to Oct increased by 168 so were a little behind last year.

Calgary Sales  Sept  2017  Oct  2017  Change % Change
Detached 919 908 -11 -1.20%
Semi Detached 144 143 -1 -0.69%
Attached – Row 189 183 -6 -3.17%
Apartment 210 233 23 10.95%
Total City 1462 1467 5 0.34%

 

 Calgary Real Estate Sales Prices:

I find these numbers interesting as again if in a balanced market prices should remain fairly stable.  In reality every sector showed a slight decrease.  One variable that these numbers do not show is consumer confidence and I think this may have something to do with prices holding.

  Sales Prices Sept  2017    Benchmark Price   Oct  2017  Benchmark Price Change
Detached 508,900 506,200 -2,700
Semi Detached 419,400 419,000 -400
Attached – Row 306,900 305,000 -1,900
Apartment 263,700 261,600 -2,100
Total City 441,500 438,900 -2,600

 

 Sales Prices “Year to Date”  

Our Year to date numbers are very in alignment with the absorption rate changes.

Sales Prices Jan 1, 2017    Benchmark Price  Oct  2017  Benchmark Price Change

$

% Change
Detached 498,700 506,200 7,500 1.50%
Semi Detached 406,800 419,000 12,200 3.00%
Attached – Row 302,600 305,000 2,400 0.79%
Apartment 265,000 261,600 -3,400 -1.28%
Total City 433,400 438,900 5,500 1.27%

 

Looking Forward – Again just Gord’s opinion.

Based on the absorption rate we should see stability in the Detached & Semi Detached sectors while we may seem more losses in the Row House & Apartment sectors

However

You may have heard by now that the Fed’s are changing mortgage qualifying rules as of Jan 1, 2018.  This can cause a wide range of changes.

  • In the short term it can push people to buy before the end of the year.
  • When they changed the qualifying process for insured mortgages we saw little change in sales numbers.
  • I heard from one mortgage broker that most banks are already doing this for many types of mortgages so again the impact may be smaller than what some expect
  • If there is an impact and people are able to qualify for less, then this may push some people from detached homes to attached homes and from row housing to the apartment condo sector which in Calgary could bring more balance to our market.
  • Really only time will tell the whole story

 

**Please note that these numbers include only Calgary homes and do change on a community basis and more so for towns.  This report does not include rural properties.  If you would like to find stats on your community just let us know.  If you have any questions about this summary or Real Estate questions please feel free to contact us.

 

 

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